North Dakota · Bakken · In charts

The Bakken in charts

How the Bakken's wells come on, decline and keep producing, year after year: oil by the year each well first produced, the treadmill of new wells it takes to stand still, the shape of a Bakken decline, the days lost to weather and shut-ins, and the gas captured instead of flared.

Production through August 2026 Pools Bakken, Three Forks and Sanish Page built November 9, 2026

The Bakken lights up

Every horizontal Bakken well, lit in the month it first produced, from January 2006 to August 2026. Each lateral flashes white, then settles into the colour of its year: deep blue for the first wells of the boom, lime for the newest. Alongside, the basin's oil builds up by the year each well first produced.

21 seconds, no sound. Laterals: DMR GIS horizontals layer, downloaded October 27, 2026 (free). Month lit: NDIC Monthly Production Reports (free). Oil and well counts: derived from NDIC production records, not an official record. County lines: U.S. Census Bureau. Download the video (MP4, 3 MB)

Every year of wells, still producing

Bakken oil each month, stacked by the year each well first produced. Output peaked at 1.46 million barrels a day in October 2019. In August 2026, 53% of the oil came from wells that started in 2024 to 2026, and 16% from wells that started in 2014 or earlier. Statewide figures, all pools included, are on Bakken Pulse.

Stacked area chart of Bakken oil in thousand barrels a day from 2007 to 2026, one band for each year of first production from 2008 to 2026, coloured from deep blue to lime. The total rises to 1.46 million barrels a day in October 2019, drops in 2020, and holds near 1.0 to 1.2 million since, with the newest years making up the top half.
Derived from NDIC production records, not an official record. Each band combines every well that first produced that year, hundreds to thousands of wells. Open full size (PNG)

Oil produced to date, by year of first production

Everything each year's wells have produced through August 2026. The wells that started in 2014 lead with 602 million barrels; 2014 also brought the most wells online, 2,188. Together, the wells first producing since 2008 have made 5.93 billion barrels. Younger years have simply had less time.

Two bar charts by year of first production, 2008 to 2026. Top: oil produced to date in million barrels, rising to 602 million for the 2014 wells, falling to 231 million for 2016, rising again to 465 million for 2018, and about 200 to 280 million for 2020 to 2024. Bottom: wells that first produced each year, peaking at 2,188 in 2014.
Derived from NDIC production records, not an official record. Each bar combines every well that first produced that year. Open full size (PNG)

The Bakken treadmill

Every autumn, the wells already producing make about a third less oil than they did a year earlier: 36% less on average over the last three years. New wells have to replace that before the basin can grow. In 2025 it took about 851 new wells just to hold production flat; 811 came online, and output slipped by about 20,000 barrels a day.

Top: for each year from 2009 to 2025, a lime bar above zero for oil added by new wells and a blue bar below zero for oil lost by wells already producing, in thousand barrels a day, with a marker for the net change. Bottom: wells that came online each year against the wells needed to hold production flat, 851 needed and 811 online in 2025.
Derived from NDIC production records, not an official record. Measured each autumn, September to November, clear of most winter storms. Wells needed = oil lost ÷ the average new well's autumn rate. Open full size (PNG)

The Bakken decline fingerprint

9,707 Bakken wells, each drawn faintly as its fitted decline curve over the years it has produced, with the median curve for each group of years in bold. After one year, wells that peaked in 2021 to 2026 keep about 20% of their peak rate; wells from 2008 to 2011 kept 34%. These are the shapes of the basin's declines, not a forecast for any well.

Thousands of faint decline curves on a log scale of percent of peak rate against years since peak, with five bold median curves by year of peak. Newer groups fall faster: after one year the 2021 to 2026 median is near 20% of peak and the 2008 to 2011 median near 34%.
From the free NDIC Monthly Production Reports. Wells whose first months were confidential are left out, because the free reports withhold those volumes; that is about half of all Bakken wells. Open full size (PNG)

Newer wells give up more of their peak, sooner

The share of the peak rate left after one year fell from 36% for wells that peaked in 2010 to about 18 to 21% since 2018. The fitted b, the curvature that slows a decline over time, fell from about 1.1 to about 0.6. Newer wells come on harder and give up more of it early.

Top: rate left after one year (lime) and three years (blue) by year of peak, 2010 to 2025, with bands for the middle half; one year falls from 36% to about 21%, three years from 15% to 5%. Bottom: the median fitted b by year, falling from about 1.1 before 2015 to about 0.6 after 2017.
From the free NDIC Monthly Production Reports, wells whose first months were public, in years with at least 100 such wells. Open full size (PNG)

Days lost each month

The share of calendar days that producing wells did not produce. A typical month loses about 9%; January averages 11% and August 8%. The 2020 price-crash shut-ins took 41% of May's days. The April 2022 blizzard took 21%, the December 2022 cold 19% and the January 2024 cold 16%.

Calendar heat map of the percent of days lost by month, January 2012 to August 2026, mostly 7 to 12%. Bright cells: April to June 2020 at 23, 41 and 26%, April 2022 at 21%, December 2022 at 19% and January 2024 at 16%.
Derived from NDIC production records, not an official record. Wells six months or older that produced the month before; a well that stops reporting counts as days lost. Open full size (PNG)

More gas, less flaring

Bakken gas output more than doubled, from about 1,500 to 3,340 million cubic feet a day, while the share flared fell from 14% to 4%, after a spike to 23% in mid-2019. The state's monthly flaring figures are on Bakken Pulse.

Top: Bakken gas in million cubic feet a day from May 2015 to August 2026, stacked as sold, used on site or not sold, and flared; the total rises from about 1,500 to 3,400. Bottom: the share flared, about 16% in 2015, peaking near 23% in mid-2019 and about 4% since 2022.
From the free NDIC Monthly Production Reports, which carry flared gas from May 2015. Confidential wells' months are withheld and new wells flare the most, so the share reads slightly low. Open full size (PNG)

About these charts

Two kinds of source

  • Free public records: the North Dakota Industrial Commission's Monthly Production Reports, as first reported (decline fingerprint, how wells changed, flaring, and the month each well lights up); the Department of Mineral Resources GIS horizontals layer (well paths); U.S. Census Bureau county lines.
  • Derived from NDIC production records: the basin totals (vintages, oil to date, the treadmill, days lost, and the oil and well counts beside the map). Every figure combines hundreds to thousands of wells, so no single well's volumes can be read from them. They are not an official record of the State of North Dakota.

Why two sources

The free monthly reports withhold the volumes of confidential wells for their first months, which is 5 to 12% of each month's Bakken oil and mostly new wells at their highest rates. Basin totals built from the free reports alone would run low, so they come from the full record. The curves, which are drawn well by well, come only from the free reports.

Method

  • Pools: Bakken, Three Forks and Sanish. Year of first production: the first month a well reported oil.
  • Decline curves: modified hyperbolic fits on oil per producing day, from the peak of the first four months, with b between 0.5 and 1.5 and a terminal decline of 8% a year. A curve stops where the rate jumped and stayed up, as after a refrac, a frac hit or a workover.
  • The treadmill compares each autumn (September to November) with the one before. Oil added minus oil lost equals the change in output exactly.

Limits

  • Values are as reported; the newest months are the most likely to be revised by operators' later filings.
  • Nothing here is a forecast, an estimate of reserves or advice about any well, lease or company.

Using the charts

Each chart opens full size as a PNG. If you share one, credit Bakken Subsurface Analytics, keep its source line and date, and do not present it as an official record, as the terms of use ask.